Weather Post: Shift Forecast

You cannot beat the weather here. You can only be wrong less often where being wrong is expensive.

How the shift works

1. Four districts, a front moving above them: pressure falls, humidity rises, the frontal band drifts west to east at its own pace.

2. You only see where a station stands. One station over a district gives direction, two give movement, three give arrival time.

3. Calibration decays. An unserviced instrument starts lying confidently after a few shifts, which is worse than lying honestly.

4. Each day you set one of three per district: calm, adverse, storm warning. The warning costs money up front and saves a lot when you are right.

5. Three prices for one decision: correct warning (district saved), false alarm (fine plus lost trust), missed storm (double fine plus an inquiry).

Tips

• Put instruments on the front's path, not over the densest district: a measured direction is worth three guessed ones.
• Calibrate on a quiet shift — it is cheaper than repairing the aftermath of a storm.
• Torn between 'adverse' and 'storm warning' over a rich district: raise the stake, the miss costs more than the alarm.